More
HenchPAC NewsFor all of American history, ambitious men (and one woman) have sought the office of vice president with one goal in mind: the office of president. Makes sense. It would seem logical that the number-two spot virtually guarantees a shot at the Oval Office down the hall. And generally it has done that - but a shot and a sure thing are not the same.
IN FACT, vice presidents who have inherited the big job are the distinct
exception, not the rule. Such exceptions have generally coincided with two circumstances:
(1) a popular president (2) peace and prosperity.
Vice President Al Gore has one of these factors in his corner, and at least some people still do like Bill Clinton. But Al Gore has a problem.
LET ME COUNT THE WAYS
Is the problem his boss’ reputation? Gore’s own credibility? Eight years of familiarity breeding contempt? Boredom? Yearning for a new face? Bad karma? I do not know.
But this we do know: the most reliable public opinion polls are consistently showing George W. Bush running ahead of Al Gore. The most troubling of these for Gore must be the just-released Battleground Poll, produced by the well-respected, bipartisan team of Republican Ed Goeas and Democrat Celinda Lake.
Gore’s having trouble retaining support of union members, progressives and women.
Among the most sobering findings for Gore is Bush’s 11-point lead. But that “horse race” number is perhaps the least important news in this poll. Look to what the political pros call the “internals” and there is real gloom — if not doom — for Al Gore.
GUNS AND GENDER
For example, the famous gender gap is back in a big way — only it threatens to eat Gore alive. Bush, the Republican, is tied with women voters.
Among voters who are strongly motivated by the issue of guns (which was supposed to kill the GOP) it is Bush, not Gore, who leads by six points.
And, for the vice president, it gets worse. Check this out: Bush is getting virtually all GOP voters — no surprise — but one in five Democrats plans to vote for George W.
Perhaps most mind-boggling of all, Bush is running even with Gore among union voters. Uh-oh. And last but not least, the striking picture painted by the Battleground Poll shows Republicans far more likely than Democrats to actually turn out and cast a vote in the presidential race.
NADER’S THREAT
Not to pile on, but it might also be worth mentioning that while Bush must contend with Pat Buchanan on his right (who is currently stealing 2 percent from Bush), Gore has a real and growing headache in the surprising candidacy of progressive Ralph Nader, currently seeking the Green Party presidential nomination and taking 7 percent of the vote from Gore.
Yes, it is only late June; but that also means there are about 17 weeks left until election day. With national polls yet to show Gore gaining ground — even among the base constituents of his party — time looks a lot different right now to a certain Texas governor than it does to a certain vice president.
HENCH adds: 1) Gun issue helping Bush. HenchPAC predicted "Hiroshima for Gun-Grabbers" HERE.
2) Pat is taking less than 2% of the vote now, and some of it is definitely coming from union members that shoiuld be voting for Gore.
3) If Gore is only even amongst women and unions, he's so far behind already he has no chance of solidifying his base, targeting fringe groups, and THEN working on central swing voters.
More
HenchPAC News
[ Home ] [ News ] [ Products ]
To leave HENCH a message,
comment, or link: