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HenchPAC NewsThe presidential race in Minnesota is a virtual dead heat between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush, according to a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.
That's startling in a state that has voted Democratic in the past six presidential elections. And the poll's bad news for Gore doesn't stop there: Among the independents who make up one-fifth of Minnesota's likely voters, Bush has a huge lead over the presumptive Democratic nominee.
In Minnesota and nationwide, those independents are the biggest prize for both
candidates as they try to expand their bases of support. Political analysts say Gore
underscored that fact with his visit Wednesday night and today with Gov. Jesse Ventura.
Gore's is trying to convince independent voters that he's someone they can support.
While spokesmen for both parties spun the poll results in predictable ways,
Minnesota political analyst Chris Gilbert called them "bad news for the vice
president -- though not fatal news."
"Given Minnesota's presidential track record, Gore should be doing a lot better
here," said Gilbert, who chairs the Political Science Department at Gustavus Adolphus
College in St. Peter. "This was a state that he shouldn't have had to sweat a
lot."
The poll shows that 42 percent of the state's likely voters favor Gore, while 40 percent support Bush; that's essentially a tie, given that the poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Some recent nationwide polls also show that the race is nearly a dead heat, and others show Bush having a whisker-thin lead.
At this point in the 1992 campaign, the Minnesota Poll showed that Democratic challenger Bill Clinton had a 19-point lead over President George Bush. Four years later, Clinton enjoyed an even bigger lead -- 24 points -- over Sen. Bob Dole. Clinton went on to win the state handily both times.
Pat Buchanan, who is trying to become the Reform Party's nominee, barely registers, with 4 percent support, also in line with his standing in national polls. The poll didn't include Green Party nominee Ralph Nader, who has registered single-digit support in national polls; other candidates were supported by about 3 percent of likely voters. Five months before the Nov. 7 election, about one in 10 likely Minnesota voters remain undecided.
Republicans were giddy over the poll. "I'm absolutely thrilled," said
St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman, who chairs Bush's campaign in Minnesota. "History has
not been on our side, but we're going to do well in Minnesota. Minnesota can be won."
Coleman and Tony Sutton, the GOP's state executive director, said the poll results agree
with the party's internal polling. Sutton said: "There's got to be consternation and
worry over at DFL headquarters. This has gotten a rap as a liberal state, but that hasn't
been true for a long time. This election is very much in play."
DFL reaction
State DFL chairman Mike Erlandson downplayed the results. "If this were
September, I'd be a little more concerned, but a head-to-head thing in June is not all
that surprising. It's going to be a dogfight in Minnesota and across the country."
Erlandson said Bush's strong showing can be traced to the fact that he's not as much of a
known quantity as Gore, meaning that support is probably weaker than it appears. That
support will erode as people become more familiar with Bush's positions, he said.
"And remember, at this stage of the game a lot of people are not paying
attention," Erlandson said. "Democrats are going to take Minnesota seriously and
work hard for Al Gore. People lose elections because they take things for granted -- and
we won't."
Gilbert attributed Gore's relatively soft support in part to the fact that
former Sen. Bill Bradley enjoyed unusually strong backing in the state before his
candidacy imploded. "So some DFLers in the state just weren't that excited about the
Gore campaign," he said.
The parties' internal dynamics also tend to dampen support for Gore, while pumping up
Bush's, Gilbert said. He said as DFLers focus on a highly competitive U.S. Senate primary
race, they pour their energies into that instead of the presidential campaign; Republicans
are concentrating on keeping Sen. Rod Grams in office and retaining control of the state
House, which helps Bush.
The independents
Among the one in five likely voters who call themselves independents, 31 percent back Bush, while 19 percent support Gore. Another 10 percent support Buchanan. "If you remember that independents overwhelmingly supported John McCain, that suggests Bush has begun to reach out beyond his Republican base in a way that Gore has not," Gilbert said.
Interviews with several poll respondents who call themselves independents
strongly suggest that their support for Bush is mostly a function of the fact that he
isn't Gore -- not because of an embrace of Bush's policy positions.
"I do not believe what Gore says," said Sally Rebehn, a counselor from Blaine.
"I just do not trust that man. He's still stuck on the fence over his loyalty to
Clinton. It's like he's not willing to make the tough choices."
When it comes to the issues that the two campaigns are emphasizing, the poll
contains nuggets of good news for both.
For likely voters who believe that public education, health care and Social Security are
the most important issues in the campaign, Gore does considerably better than Bush. For
those who see the national debt as the most important issue, the reverse is true. For
those who single out gun control, it's a toss up, with Gore and Bush getting roughly equal
support -- even though their positions are opposed.
HENCH adds: "...independents strongly suggest that their support for Bush is mostly a function of the fact that he isn't Gore..." Devastating in a liberal state like Minnesota. What happened to Gore "Riding the Clinton Leagacy?" He's riding it right to the grave!
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